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File: 970613_505wp_00d_txt_0001.txt
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Subject:  Iraq Interagency Biological Warfare Working Group

OVERVIEW

       The Iraq Interagency Biological Warfare Working Group(IIBWWG) was formed to examine the Iraqi Biological Warfare (BW)program, the threat it presents to Desert Shield coalition forces,and civilian populations. In addition, the working group examinedthe various implications of national operational strike scenariosagainst Iraqi BW production and storage facilities. Five sub�groupswere formed to address the following: threat analysis; BWproduction, storage, and deployment [b.1. sec 1.5.(c)]  political/military considerations, and weapons/vulnerability analysis. Thefindings of the sub�groups were presented to the fusion group whichwas charged with writing the key judgements and the executivesummary for the executive level Steering Group. Representatives ofIntelligence Community agencies participated along with Air Force,Army, AFMIC, and U.S.AMRIID personnel, including weapons planners,physicians, microbiologists, and members of various R&D elements.

       Previous National Intelligence Estimates, including arecently completed Special National Intelligence Estimate, WSSICpapers, and various other studies, analysis, and reports were usedto establish the baseline for this effort. The executive summaryhighlights the group's key judgments as well as the key findings ofeach of the working groups, with particular focus on those aspectsof Iraq's BW program which could impact adversely on Desert Shieldcoalition forces.

[b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]



Key Judgements

          Iraq has an advanced biological warfare capability and webelieve it has developed a dissemination capability for anthraxspores and botulinum toxin, and may have other BW agents which posea significant threat to coalition forces.




[b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]


          Iraq's effective use of BW agents is dependent uponfavorable meteorological conditions and efficiency of disseminationdevices.



[b.1. sec. 1.5.(a), (c)]

          Defensive measures to include use of respiratoryprotection during periods of vulnerability, vaccination andantibiotics should be instituted immediately.

Executive Summary

Section I.  Iraq's Biological Warfare Program

	Summary.  Iraq has an advanced biological warfare (BW) program and has developed at least two BW agents:  anthrax spores and bolulinum toxin.  The Iraqis have shown interest in development of other infectious agents and toxins (b.1. sec. 1.5.c.)

                                                             We estimate that it consists of at least one(l) metric ton of dried anthrax spores and up to 15 kilograms ofbotulinum toxin. Iraq has the technical expertise as well as thefacilities necessary for storage and production of these quantitiesof BW agents.

A. (U) Production Facilities.

                 Production of anthrax spores and botulinum toxinis believed to have been ongoing for at least two years.        [b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]

                           a Clostridium vaccine plant in AbuGhurayb is the location of botulinum toxin production.            [b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]                                     

		a plant in the Taji area the location of BW agent production.

[b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]

A (b.1. sec. 1.5.c.) building at Salman Pak conducts BW research and (b.1. sec. 1.5.c.) production.


C. (U) Production Capability and Stockpile
[b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]



                 Iraq has a well developed pharmaceuticalindustry and is technically capable of producing largequantities of BW agents with the equipment available in�country. Iraq has a vaccine production capability asdemonstrated by the sale of veterinary vaccines [b.1. sec.1.5.(c)]      In addition, Iraq has almost certainly been ableto incorporate many of the advances in fermenter and dryingtechnology that have taken place in the past decade.

[b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]

 If these munitions are filled and deployed, they most probablyinclude air�delivered munitions, artillery projectiles, andspray/aerosol generating devices with botulinum toxin. 
[b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]

D.     Iraqi Intentions to Use BW[b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]                           Past Iraqi tactical battlefield use of chemical weapons��Iraq was thefirst nation to use nerve agents on the battlefield��andstatements by Iraqi officials justifying employment of anyweapon to defend their country suggest that Baghdad wouldconsider using biological weapons under certain extremecircumstances. Iraq's lack of experience in using biologicalweapons would probably not prevent a decision to use them.


[b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]

Section II   Iraqi BW Threat to Coalition Forces:

 	Summary.  use of biological warfare (BW) agents by Iraq poses a serious threat to coalition forces.     

	Use of Anthrax Sposes as a BW Weapon.  Weaponized anthrax spores can be used in any number ofcircumstances.  [b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]                                                                                                                                   

                 Large Area Coverage.  Anthrax spores lendthemselves to wide area coverage, which can best be achieved byaerosol generators or spray devices, because of theirresistance to environmental factors (other than ultravioletlight) during dissemination. 
[b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]
 Large area coverage is contingent upon sustained favorablemeteorological conditions. Any attack with BW munitions wouldbe most likely in areas which the Iraqis do not intend toimmediately occupy, due to the persistence of anthrax spores.

	Airbases.  Anthrax spores could be used to considerable advantage for covertly attacking airfileds and aircraft carriers either preemptively or during hostitlities.  An attack would require an upwind position and the probability of success increases the closer the agent release occurs to the target.  Proper winds and night time release of (b.1. sec. 1.5.a.) would give Iraqi forces a standoff capability (b.1. sec. 1.5.a.)
                 Civilian Populations.  Civilian populations would be at risk to attacks by whatever means the Iraqis choseto disseminate the anthrax spores.

B.                  Use of Botulinum Toxin as a BW Weapon.  Botulinum toxin is similar to chemical agents in that it isnon�living and has its effect within hours of inhalation.Battlefield use would most likely occur in tactical situationsrequiring a non�persistent agent. Artillery munitions and spraydevices are suitable delivery means.  [b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Botulinumtoxin could also be useful to terrorize large populationcenters although it is most effective against localized pointtargets.

IRAQ's BIOLOGICAL WARFARE PROGRAM

                     Iraq has an advanced biological warfare(BW) program and has developed at least two BW agents: anthraxspores and botulinum toxin. The Iraqis have shown interest indeveloping other infectious agents and toxins,               [b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]                                                                                                         we estimate that it consists of at least one (l) metric ton ofdried anthrax spores and up to 15 kilograms of botulinum toxin.Iraq has the technical expertise as well as the facilitiesnecessary for storage and production of these quantities of BWagents.

	Production of anthrax spores and botulinum toxin has been ongoing for at least two years.  (b.1. sec. 1.5.c.)

	
                               a Clostridium vaccine plant inAbu Ghraib is the location of botulinum toxin production.     [b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]                                          

                               a plant in the Taji area is thelocation of BW agent production. [b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]       itis probably one location of anthrax spore production.                                                
                                                                                       

    o A [b.1. sec. 1.5.)]  building at Salman Pak is thelocation of BW agent R & D and            production. 

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