IRAQ-KUWAIT: SITUATION UPDATE.

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(b.2.)

SERIAL: DSA 172-91
SUBJECT: IRAQ-KUWAIT: SITUATION UPDATE.

/*********** THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE ************/

DOI: 20 FEB 91 (AS OF 0100 EST)
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MAJOR POINTS
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1. PRISONERS AND DEFECTORS CONTINUE TO CLAIM THAT MANY IRAQI
TROOPS HAVE POOR MORALE AND WISH TO DEFECT.
2. (b.1. sec. 1.5.c.) ON 19 FEBRUARY BAGHDAD LAUNCHED A SINGLE SCUD-TYPE
SHORT-RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILE AT ISRAEL.
3. IRAQ'S CHEMICAL WARFARE INVENTORY MAY INCLUDE
BLOOD AGENTS.
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DUSCUSSION
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(b.1. sec. 1.5.c.)

6. ENEMY PRISONER OF WAR (EPW) AND DEFECTOR REPORTS INDICATE
THAT TROOP MORALE PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE IRAQI COMMANDERS.
EXECUTION TEAMS HAVE REPORTEDLY BEEN USED TO KEEP FRONT-LINE TROOPS
IN PLACE. EPW'S CLAIM THAT A LARGER PORTION OF THEIR UNITS WOULD
SURRENDER EXCEPT FOR THEIR OWN MINEFIELDS, THE REPUBLICAN GUARDS
LOCATED TO THEIR REAR, AND POSSIBLE RETALIATION AGAINST THEIR
FAMILIES. UNDER INTERROGATION, IRAQI TROOPS EXPRESSED DISTRESS
ABOUT FIGHTING THEIR ARAB BROTHERS AND BELIEVE THAT THEY ARE ALL
LOSERS IN THIS SITUATION. THE EPW'S ALSO REPORT THAT COMMANDERS ARE
HAVING LITTLE SUCCESS IN THEIR ATTEMPTS TO IMPROVE MORALE BY
BUILDING UP THE BELIEF IN THE IRAQI CAUSE. COMMENT: IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT EPW'S WHO SURRENDER VOLUNTARILY ARE THE MOST DISGRUNTLED
AND OFTEN UNPROFESSIONAL TROOPS. THEY MAY EMBELLISH BAD CONDITIONS
AND LOW MORALE BOTH TO JUSTIFY THEIR DECISION TO SURRENDER AND TO
OBTAIN FAVORABLE TREATMENT FROM THEIR CAPTORS. IRAQ1 COMMANDERS MAY
ALSO BE SENDING IRAQI SOLDIERS ACROSS THE LINE TO DETERMINE WEAK
POINTS IN THE COALITION LINE AND TO PASS ON DISINFORMATION. DESPITE
ALL THESE LIMITATIONS ON THE VALIDITY OF EPW REPORTS, THE CONSISTENT
REPORTS OF LOW MORALE INDICATE THAT THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM
FOR IRAQI COMMANDERS.

(b.1. sec. 1.5.c.)

15. (b.1. sec. 1.5.c.) EVIDENCE
SUGGESTING THAT THE IRAQIS HAVE BLOOD AGENTS IN THEIR CHEMICAL
WARFARE (CW) INVENTORY.(b.1. sec. 1.5.c.)

IRANIAN SOURCES HAVE DESCRIBED BATTLEFIELD
CASUALTIES CAUSED BY CYANIDE GAS DURING THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR. CYANIDE
GASES ARE NONPERSISTENT AND WOULD BE EFFECTIVE QNLY AGAINST
UNPROTECTED PERSONNEL. (b.1. sec. 1.5.a., c.)
IRAQ IS ATTEMPTING TO PROCURE ANTIDOTES FROM WESTERN SOURCES THAT WOULD COUNTER THE EFFECTS OF
NERVE AND BLISTER AGENTS AS WELL AS BLOOD AGENTS. COMMENT: WHILE
IRAQ'S ATTEMPTS TO PROCURE ANTIDOTES FOR CYANIDE AGENTS ARE NOT
PROOF THAT THEY HAVE SUCH AGENTS IN THEIR CW INVENTORY, THE
COMPILATION OF OTHER INTELLIGENCE REPORTING SUGGESTS THAT IRAQ
POSSESSES THESE AGENTS. HYDROGEN CYANIDE IS AN INDUSTRIAL CHEMICAL
THAT COULD EASILY BE PRODUCED WITHIN IRAQ'S CIVILIAN CHEMICAL
INDUSTRY. PRODUCTION OF CYANIDE GASES COULD BE ONE SOLUTION TO THE
MANUFACTURING PROBLEMS IRAQ IS HAVING WITH NERVE AGENTS.