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File: 950719_68320872_90r.txt
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IIR 6 832 0872 90/[  (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)  ] VIEWS ON IRAQI 
CHEMICAL WARFARE CAPABILITY - PART II TFKU01 (U)

Filename:68320872.90r
PATHFINDER RECORD NUMBER: 37553
GENDATE:         950504
NNNN
TEXT:            
ENVELOPE CDSN = LGX674 MCN = 90246/21676 TOR = 902461458
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BT
CONTROLS [  (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)  ]                 



SERIAL: (U) IIR 6 832 0872 90.


/*********** THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE ************/
BODY COUNTRY: (U) [   (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)   ]; IRAQ (IZ)

SUBJ: IIR 6 832 0872 90/[  (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)  ] VIEWS ON IRAQI 
CHEMICAL WARFARE CAPABILITY - PART II TFKU01 (U)

WARNING: (U) THIS IS AN INFO REPORT, NOT FINALLY
EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE.                   


-------------------------------------------------
 DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
-------------------------------------------------

DOI: (U) 900829.

REQS: (U) [  (b)(2)  ]


SOURCE: [  (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)  ]



SUMMARY:    REPORT FORWARDS NEWLY OBTAINED INFORMATION ON IRAQI 
CHEMICAL WARFARE FIGHTING CAPABILITY. IRAQ HAS REPORTEDLY 
DEVELOPED A COCKTAIL CHEMICAL WEAPON THAT COMBINES MUSTARD GAS AND 
THE NERVE
AGENT SOMAN.

TEXT: 1.   IRAQI CHEMICAL "COCKTAIL".
SOURCE INDICATED THAT [  (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)  ] HAD VERY RELIABLE 
INFORMATION THAT THE IRAQIS HAVE DEVELOPED A "COCKTAIL" CHEMICAL
WEAPON THAT IS A MIXTURE OF MUSTARD GAS AND THE NERVE AGENT SOMAN. 
SOURCE STRESSED THAT THERE WERE TWO REASONS WHY THE IRAQIS CHOSE 
TO DEVELOP THIS WEAPON. FIRST, BECAUSE THE VISIBLE GASES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE USE OF MUSTARD GAS ARE NOT PRESENT, DETECTION 
IS DIFFICULT.  SECOND, ACCORDING TO SOURCE, THERE IS NO TREATMENT 
TO
COUNTER THE EFFECTS OF THE COCKTAIL. SOURCE INDICATED THAT THE 
IRAQIS MAY HAVE DEVELOPED A CAPABILITY TO DELIVER THE COCKTAIL VIA 
AIRCRAFT, ROCKET LAUNCHERS, OR POSSIBLY SURFACE-TO-SURFACE 
MISSILES.

2. IRAQI TOXIC AGENTS.
SOURCE PROVIDED [  (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)  ] FOLLOW-UP INFORMATION 
ON IRAQI AGENTS. THE IRAQIS POSSESS MUSTARD GAS, AND THE NERVE 
AGENTS -- SOMAN, TABUN, AND SARIN. HYDROCYANIC ACID AND CYANOGEN 
CHLORIDE ARE ALSO AMONG IRAQI TOXICS EVEN THOUGH THEIR USE IN A 
VERY DRY CLIMATE IS RISKY. ( [  (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)  ] COMMENT -- 
SUGGEST THAT, IN THIS CONTEXT, RISKY MEANS DIFFICULT TO HANDLE.) 
THE IRAQIS HAVE ALSO CONDUCTED RESEARCH ON BZ, AN AGENT WITH 
PHYSICAL INCAPACITATING PROPERTIES, AND VX A PERSISTENT NERVE 
AGENT. THE IRAQIS ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE AN ANNUAL PRODUCTION 
CAPACITY OF BETWEEN 1400 AND 2500 TONS OF TOXINS.

3. DELIVERY MEANS.

A. ARTILLERY.

SOURCE INDICATED THAT, DUE TO THEIR LARGE QUANTITY,
THERE IS UNDENIABLY A GREAT RISK OF A CHEMICAL ATTACK
FROM ARTILLERY SHELLS THAT ARE LARGER THAN 150 MM IN
CALIBER. THE MULTIPLE ROCKET LAUNCHERS OF THE TYPE KNOWN
AS "ABABIL," WITH A RANGE OF 50 TO 100 KILOMETERS, ALSO
REPRESENT A RISK.

B. AVIATION.

SOURCE STATED THAT AIRCRAFT ARE THE PREFERRED MEANS OF
DELIVERING CHEMICAL WEAPONS. ([  (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)  ] COMMENT 
-- SOURCE DID NOT EXPLAIN WHY AIRCRAFT ARE PREFERRED, BUT ONE 
REASON
MAY BE FOR ADDED ACCURACY.) ACCORDING TO SOURCE, THE
FOLLOWING IRAQI AIRCRAFT, DEPENDING ON THEIR
CONFIGURATION, ARE CAPABLE OF DELIVERING TOXIC-FILLED
GRAVITY BOMBS WEIGHING FROM 250 KG TO 1000 KG. --
-- TUPOLEV-16 AND 22
-- SUKKOI-22
-- MIRAGE F-1 EQ
-- MIG-29
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AIRCRAFT ALSO APPARENTLY HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF CARRYING AEROSOL OR SPRAY TANKS WITH
TANKAGE OF BETWEEN 100 AND 300 LITERS.

C. SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILES.

SOURCE STATED THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW FOR SURE
EXACTLY HOW MUCH OF A THREAT SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILES
REPRESENT. [  (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)  ] HAVE VERY LITTLE INFORMATION 
ON THIS THREAT BUT CONCLUDE THAT ONE SHOULD NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY. SOURCE SEEMED CONFIDENT THAT THE 900 KM
RANGE AL ABBAS MISSILE HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO CARRY A
CHEMICAL WARHEAD. SOURCE INDICATED THAT THE IRAQIS HAD ON
THE ORDER OF 100 SUCH MISSILES AND APPROXIMATELY TEN
OPERATIONAL LAUNCH RAMPS. SOURCE STATED THAT THE RE-LOAD
TIME FOR THE AL ABBAS IS ON THE ORDER OF ONE HOUR. SOURCE
INDICATED THAT THE CEP OF THE AL ABBAS WAS ON THE ORDER
OF 2 KM. AS FAR AS THE FROG, SCUD, AND AL HUSSEIN
MISSILES ARE CONCERNED, SOURCE STATED THAT THESE
MISSILES COULD BE MODIFIED TO CARRY A CHEMICAL WARHEAD,
BUT HAD NO EVIDENCE THAT THIS HAD ACTUALLY OCCURRED.

4. THEORETICAL CONTAMINATION ZONES.

SOURCE PROVIDED [  (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)  ] THEORETICAL 
CONTAMINATION ZONES FOR THREE OF THE FOUR MISSILES. THE DATA 
PRESENTED IS IN HECTARES AND REPRESENTS THE AREA CONTAMINATED FOR 
A TRANSIENT AGENT AND A PERSISTENT AGENT.

MISSILE TRANSIENT AGENT PERSISTENT AGENT

AL ABBAS 70 100 TO 150
FROG 7 30 30 TO 50
SCUD B 100 150 TO 250

SOURCE ADDED THAT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE CONTAMINATED
ZONES WOULD BE SMALLER DUE TO THE EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE.
IN URBAN AREAS, IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT BUILDINGS WOULD
SLOW DOWN THE NORMAL PROPAGATION OF TOXICS AGAIN REDUCING
THE SIZE OF THE CONTAMINATION ZONE.

COMMENTS: 1. SOURCE COMMENT. SOURCE STRESSED AT LEAST TWICE THAT 
THE INFORMATION ON THE "COCKTAIL" WEAPON IS CONSIDERED VERY 
RELIABLE.

2. FIELD COMMENTS. THE POSSIBLE USE OF THE MIG-29 TO DELIVER A 
GRAVITY WEAPON SEEMS ODD, AND [  (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)  ] SUGGESTS 
THAT THIS INFORMATION SHOULD BE TREATED WITH SOME DEGREE OF 
SKEPTICISM. THE USE OF AN AIR-DEFENSE ASSET TO DELIVER CHEMICAL 
WEAPONS IS UNLIKELY, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR PREVIOUS 
[  (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)  ] REPORTING ON [  (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)  ] 
VIEWS ON IRAQI CHEMICAL CAPABILITY,  [  (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)  ] . 
[  (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)  ] CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE IRAQI 
PREFERRED METHOD OF DELIVERING CHEMICAL WEAPONS IS VIA AIRCRAFT.


//IPSP: (U) PT 1600; PG 1100; PT 1620//.
//COMSOBJ: (U) 141; 111; 143//.
ADMIN PROJ: (U).
COLL: (U) [  (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)  ]
INSTR: (U) US NO.
PREP: (U) [  (b)(2)  ]
ACQ: (U) [  (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)  ]
DISSEM: (U) [  (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)  ]
WARNING: (U) 


##



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