EFFECTS OF COLLISION OF CHEMICAL-CAPABLE SCUD WITH A

File: 950811_0140pgv_00d.txt
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MISSILE AND GENERAL EFFECTS OF CHEMICAL-CAPABLE SCUD MISSILES

Filename:0140pgv.00d

TASKER:  0798                                 SUSPENSE:  OPEN




SUBJ:   EFFECTS OF COLLISION OF CHEMICAL-CAPABLE SCUD WITH A 
PATRIOT MISSILE AND GENERAL EFFECTS OF CHEMICAL-CAPABLE SCUD 
MISSILES

[    b.2.    ]

1.       There are two possible outcomes to the interception of a
SCUD by the Patriot missile.  If the Patriot hits the SCUD behind 
the warhead, the warhead could escape undamaged and explode at the
predetermined altitude. However, it will be put off course due to
the collision, and depending on the height of intercept, the agent
will not be disseminated over the desired target.  If the warhead 
is damaged by the collision, the agent will be disseminated in a 
less than optimal way and probably at a higher altitude than 
usual.  This will increase the area that will be contaminated, but 
because the SCUD contains a finite amount of CW or BW agent 
(350-440 kg,
depanding on the fill), the average contamination per square meter
deck.

2.       [      (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)    ] the altitude at which an 
Iraqi
chemical missile would open. However, an altitude between
level and 1O meters appears optimal for a nonpersistant agent
Modelling the release zone as a cone with an apex angle of 150o  
and using an altitude of 10 meters and a 350 kg payload, this 
indicates an average contion density of 80 grams per square meter. 
 The conminated area would be about 1675 square meters if all of 
the
agent fell within the region outlined by the cone.  This is not 
the
case, so more area will be contaminated, lowering the average
contamination density, possibly to about 4 to 6 grams per square
meter.

3.      In general, the area of lethal concentration depends on 
the
altitude at which agent is disseminated and the droplet or 
particle
size.  As droplet or particle size increases, the amount of time
required for it to fail to the ground decreases.  This increases 
the amount of agent that will reach the ground.  Therefore, 
contamination density tends to rise as to rise as droplet or 
particle size increases.  Due to the infinite contents of the 
warhead, the area contaminated will decrease as droplet or 
particle size increases. A persistent agent could be released at a 
somewhat higher altitude, depending on its toxicity, and could 
cover a slightly larger area due to the increased burst height.

4.       Overall weather conditions, not just wind speed, affect 
the persistency of chemical agents.  Precipitation, high 
temperatures, increased wind speed, and high humidity  tend to 
reduce the persistency of chemical agents.  The contaminated area 
will become more oval in shape as wind speed increases, with the 
larger axis of the oval along the direction of the prevailing 
wind.  CW agents will also tend to disseminate along the also tend 
to disseminate along the direction of the prevailing wind.
Wind speed decreases in importance as droplet or particle size
decreases.  The cutoff is approximately 3 microns, below which a
change in wind velocity has little effect on the velocity of the
droplet or particle.

5.     [      (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)    ]






6.        If the fuel in a fuel-air explosive does not ignite,
it is possible to mistake an attack with fuel-air explosives for a
chemical attack because the fill can be toxic to personnel doused
with the contents of the bomb.  Toxic effects can include
respiratory difficulties and skin blistering.

7.       [    b.2.    ] and [   (b)(6)   ]

8.       [    b.2.    ] [   (b)(6)   ]