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File: 950811_60643089_91.txt
Filename:60643089.91
CDSN = LGX238 MCN = 91046/09354 TOR = 910460822
OTTSZYUW RUEKJCS1240 0460819---RUEALGX.
ZNY
O 150819Z FEB 91
FM JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
INFO RUEALGX/SAFE
O 151203Z FEB 91
FM USCINCCENT//CCJ2-CH//
TO AIG 7057
RUEORDF/DIRAFMIC FT DETRICK MD//AFMIC-CR//
RUEOAYC/FSTC CHARLOTTESVILLE VA//AIFICB/INTEL OPS//
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SECTION 1 OF 2
MINIMIZE CONSIDERED
SERIAL: (U) 6 064 3089 91.
/*********** THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE ************/
COUNTRY: (U) IRAQ (IZ); EGYPT (EG).
SUBJ: IIR 6 064 3089 91/ ESTIMATE OF IRAQ'S TACTICAL CHEMICAL
WEAPONS
(U)
WARNING: (U) THIS IS AN INFORMATION REPORT. NOT FINALLY
EVALUATED
INTELLIGENCE.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
DOI: (U) 910200.
REQS: (U) [ b.2. ]
SOURCE: [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ]
SUMMARY: THIS REPORT FORWARDS [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ]
ASSESSMENT OF
IRAQ'S TACTICAL CHEMICAL WEAPONS, DELIVERY SYSTEMS, AND EMPLOYMENT
TACTICS. FOUR ENCLOSURES.
TEXT: (U)
1. IN LIGHT OF THE DISTANCE BETWEEN ASSEMBLY AREAS OF THE MAIN
UNITS OF THE ALLIED FORCES AND THE DEFENSE BELT OF THE IRAQI
FORCES,
AND THE LARGE SECURITY BELT BETWEEN THEM, IT IS PROBABLE THAT THE
IRAQI METHODS OF EMPLOYMENT OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS WILL BE AS
FOLLOWS.
A. TAKE A RISK LIKE THE ATTACK ON THE CITY OF AL-KHAFJI AND MAKE
A STRONG MOVE TO PENETRATE THE SECURITY BELT AND APPROACH THE MAIN
FORCE OF THE ALLIED FORCES TO A DISTANCE THAT ENABLE THE USE OF
TACTICAL CHEMICAL WEAPONS. IN THIS CASE THEY WILL USE THE
SAQR-30,
SAQR-18, OR THE ITALIAN FIROS-25 ROCKETS FOR 30 SECONDS TO GAIN
SURPRISE AND ACHIEVE A GREAT CONCENTRATION IN THE LEAST AMOUNT OF
TIME.
B. BEFORE AND DURING THE ALLIED FORCES OFFENSIVE LAND BATTLE TO
LIBERATE KUWAIT, THEY WILL USE SAQR-30 OR SAQR-18 ROCKETS
(ABUNDANT
SUPPLY), FIROS-25 ROCKETS, OR 155MM ARTILLERY.
2. TYPES AND SPECIFICATIONS OF TACTICAL CHEMICAL WEAPONS
PROVIDED TO THE IRAQI SIDE.
A. IRAQ OBTAINED 10,000 SAQR-30 ROCKETS THAT CAN BE FIRED FROM
A BM-21 LAUNCHER (40 ROCKETS FROM A SOVIET LAUNCHER OR 30 ROCKETS
FROM A ROMANIAN LAUNCHER). IT USED ABOUT 3,500 OF THESE ROCKETS
DURING THE BATTLE TO LIBERATE SHALAMJAH DURING THE WAR WITH IRAN.
B. SAQR-30 ROCKET SPECIFICATIONS FOLLOW--
(1) MAXIMUM RANGE, 27 KM.
(2) SIZE OF CONTAINERS. 6.7 LITERS, IN THREE CONTAINERS. THE
FORWARD CONTAINER HOLDS 1.9 LITERS, THE OTHER TWO ARE EACH SIZED
FOR
2.4 LITERS. THE VOLUME WHEN FULL IS 6.02 LITERS.
(3) THE THREE CONTAINERS ARE EMPTIED BY MEANS OF A FULL TIME BALL
(TN-- CHARGE), OTHERWISE, THE MATERIAL EXITS BY MEANS OF A
STRIKING
BALL (TN-- CONTACT FUSE).
(4) THE DISPERSAL AREA OF ONE ROCKET (3 CONTAINERS) IS ABOUT
1,500 SQUARE METERS.
(5) THE DISPRERSAL AREA FOR A VOLLEY IF ABN OF 12 LAUNCHERS (40
TUBED LAUNCHERS) IS ABOUT 350 HECTARES.
C. SAQR-18 ROCKET. IRAQ OBTAINED 10,000 SAQR-18 ROCKETS THAT
CAN BE FIRED FROM THE BM-21 LAUNCHER. IT IS PROBABLE THAT MOST OF
THEM WERE USED DURING THE BATTLE TO LIBERATE THE AL-FAW PENINSULA.
SPECIFICATIONS FOLLOW--
(1) TOTAL SIZE OF THE CONTAINER IS 6.9 LITERS, IN THREE
CONTAINERS. THE FORWARD CONTAINER HOLDS 0.94 LITERS AND THE OTHER
TWO CONTAINERS ARE EACH SIZED FOR 3.02 LITERS. THE VOLUME OF THE
MATERIAL WHEN FULL IS 6.25 LITERS.
(2) MAXIMUM RANGE, 18KM.
(3) THE ROCKET EXPLODES WITH A CONTACT FUSE.
(4) DISPERSAL AREA OF ONE ROCKET IS ABOUT 1100 SQUARE METERS.
(5) THE DISPERSAL AREA FOR A VOLLEY OF A BN OF 12 LAUNCHERS (40
TUBED) IS ABOUT 130 HECTARES.
D. FIROS-25 ROCKET (ITALIAN PRODUCED). IRAQ OBTIANED AN UNKNOWN
NUMBER OF THESE ROCKETS THAT ARE LAUNCHED FROM THE SAME BM-21
LAUNCHER (122MM). THEY UTILIZE A CONTACT FUSE AND WARHEAD
CARRYING
CHEMICAL MATERIALS; MAXIMUM RANGE IS 25 KM.
E. 155MM PROJECTILE SPECIFICATIONS.
(1) MAXIMUM RANGE, 18KM.
(2) TOTAL VOLUME OF THE PROJECTILE IS 2.7 LITERS.
(3) THE DISPERSAL AREA OF A 155MM HOWITZER BN FIRE IS ABOUT 80
HECTARES.
(4) [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ] ITS RANGE IS 24.6 KM.
3. TYPES OF WAS GASES AVAILABLE TO IRAQI FORCES.
A. (S) SULPHUR MUSTARD GAS. IT IS AN INFLAMMATORY GAS;
PRODUCTION
IN IRAQ HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. IT WAS WIDELY USED IN THE IRAN-IRAQ
WAR.
DELIVERY WAS VIA RB 250KG AIRCRAFT BOMBS [ (b)(1) sec
1.3(a)(4) ]; THESE
CARRY ABOUT 75 KG OF MATERIAL. IT ALSO WAS DELIVERED BY 130MM AND
155MM ARTILLERY PROJECTILES AND BY SAQR-18 ROCKETS.
B. TABUN GAS. THIS NERVE GAS PRODUCTION HAS ALSO BEEN CONFIRMED
IN IRAQ. IT WAS USED IN A LIMITED MANNER IN THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR.
DELIVERY WAS VIA THE RB 250KG AIRCRAFT BOMB, AS WELL AS 130MM AND
155MM ARTILLERY PROJECTILES.
C. SARIN GAS. THIS NERVE GAS IS UNCONFIRMED FOR PRODUCTION IN
IRAQ. IT WAS NOT USED IN THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR DESPITE IRAQ'S
PURCHASE
OF A LARGE QUANTITY OF ONE OF THE PRECURSORS FROM THE U.S. USED
IN
STEP NUMBER TWO OF ITS PRODUCTION CYCLE, WHICH HAS FIVE STEPS.
(THERE IS A KNOWN REQUEST FOR THE PROVISION OF A QUANTITY OF THIS
MATERIAL THAT WOULD ENABLE PRODUCTION.)
4. METHODS OF IRAQI EMPLOYMENT OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS DURING THE
IRAN-IRAQ WAR.
A. AIRCRAFT BOMBS. THE IRAQI CANNOT USE THIS METHOD VERY WELL
BECAUSE OF THE SMALL NUMBER OF BOMBS USE D ON IRANIAN DIVISIONS
IN
A DEFENSIVE MANNER. ADDITIONALLY, THEY USED RB 250KG BOMBS FILLED
WITH 60KG OF MATERIAL AND DID NOT USE THE RB 500KG BOMB FILLED
WITH
120 KG OF MATERIAL. THIS IS BECAUSE THE PILOTS REFUSED TO CARRY
THEM
ON THE AIRCRAFT.
B. 130MM AND 155MM ARTILLERY PROJECTILES. THE IRAQI FORCES USED
THESE WIDELY, FILLED WITH SULPHUR MUSTARD AND TABUN, BUT THEY
STOPPED
USING THEM BECAUSE OF THE SMALL VOLUME OF MATERIAL THAT CAN BE
PLACED
IN THEM.
C. SAQR-18 ROCKETS. THOSE USED WERE FILLED ONLY WITH SULPHUR
MUSTARD. THEY WERE USED ON A WIDE SCALE AND IN LARGE
CONCENTRATIONS.
D. SAQR-30 ROCKETS. THOSE USED WERE FILLED WITH SULPHUR
MUSTARD. ABOUT 3,500 WERE USED IN THE BATTLE OF SHALAMJAH. THESE
WERE USED IN THE NORTH AGAINST THE TURKS.
5. PROBABLE METHODS OF EMPLOYMENT OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS BY THE
IRAQI FORCES DURING THE WAR TO LIBERATE KUWAIT.
A. THE ALLIED FORCES PLAN ON THE IRAQI FORCES USING CHEMICAL
WEAPONS SINCE CHEMICALS ARE DESTROYED WHEN THEY ARE DETECTED.
B. IN THE EVENT IRAQI FORCES ATTACK ALLIED FORCES WITH CHEMICAL
WEAPONS, IT WILL BE DONE AS FOLLOWS--
(1) DISRUPT THE DEFENSIVE BELT, THEN ATTACK THE MAIN FORCES IN
ASSEMBLY AREAS USING SAQR-18/30 ROCKETS IN AN THIRTY SECOND
VOLLEY.
THE ATTACK WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN THE FOLLOWING--
(A) AN AREA OF 350 HECTARES FOR THE SAQR-30 OR 130 HECTARES FOR
THE SAQR-18 ROCKETS - IN THE EVENT OF ONE BN FIRING FOR 30
SECONDS.
(B) PERSONNEL CASUALTIES WILL BE LIMITED TO 8-12 PERCENT IN THE
EVENT OF A WARNING OF CHEMICAL ATTACK; THEY MIGHT REACH 50 PERCENT
IF
THERE IS NO WARNING.
(C) THE USE OF AIRCRAFT BOMBS IS UNKNOWN DUE TO THE LACK OF
CAPABILITY OF THE IRAQI AIR FORCE IN BATTLE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF
THE OFFENSIVE OPERATION.
C. IT IS PROBABLE THAT THE CHEMICAL FILLED MUNITIONS WILL BE 60
PERCENT BLISTER AGENT (SULPHUR MUSTARD) AND THE REMAINING 40
PERCENT
WILL BE NERVE AGENT (TABUN OR SARIN) - IF THE IRAQI HAVE BEEN
SUCCESSFUL IN ITS PRODUCTION.
D. TIMING OF EMPLOYMENT. THE MOST APPROPRIATE TIME FOR USE IS
DURING THE PERIOD FROM ONE HOUR AFTER SUNSET TO ONE HOUR BEFORE
SUNRISE. AT THE SAME TIME, SCUD-B MISSILES WILL BE USED AGAINST
BOTH
SAUDI ARABIA AND ISRAEL. THIS EMPLOYMENT WILL USE BLISTER AGENTS
IN
THE MIDDLE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, AND NERVE GAS BEFORE SUNRISE AND
AFTER SUNSET.
6. (U) OUTLOOK.
A. ANALYSIS OF THE QUANTITY OF PRECURSOR MATERIAL TRANSFERRED TO
IRAQ, ESPECIALLY METHYL AND DIMETHYL PHOSPHATE, WILL DETERMINE THE
PROBABLE AMOUNT OF SARIN GAS THAT IRAQ HAS PRODUCED.
B. IT IS PROBABLE THAT IRAQ WILL ATTACK ALLIED FORCES WITH
CHEMICAL WEAPONS DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE ALLIED FORCES WILL
REACT
WITH CHEMICAL OR NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
C. IN THE EVENT OF THE USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS AGAINST ALLIED
FORCES, ESPECIALLY IN THE ASSEMBLY AREAS, THERE WILL BE A LIMITED
EFFECT BECAUSE ONE OF THE PRINCIPLES OF THE USE OF CHEMICAL
WEAPONS
IS ASSEMBLY SINCE THERE IS A CONCENTRATED EFFECT. (SIC).
D. STRICT ATTENTION TO THE WEARING OF THE PROTECTIVE MASK IS
NECESSARY TO MINIMIZE CASUALTIES FROM THE FIRST ARTILLERY ROUND,
ESPECIALLY IN ASSEMBLY AREAS.
7. ENCLOSURES. ENCLOSURE ONE IS A TABLE OF THE ESTIMATED
CHEMICAL
SITUATION. ENCLOSURE TWO IS A DRAWING OF THE DISPERSAL AREA FOR
SARIN GAS. ENCLOSURE THREE IS A DRAWING OF THE DISPERSAL AREA FOR
SULPHUR MUSTARD. ENCLOSURE FOUR IS A DRAWING INDICATING THE AREA
OF
DISPERSAL OF A SAQR-30 ROCKET BN VOLLEY AT MAXIMUM RANGE.
COMMENTS: (U) NONE.
IPSP: (U) //PGW2650//.
COMSOBJ: (U) [ b.2. ]
PROJ: (U)
INSTR: (U) [ b.2. ]
PREP: (U) [ b.2. ]
ENCLS: (U) FOUR ENCLOSURES (TO FOLLOW):
1. TABLE: ESTIMATED CHEMICAL SITUATION (U), DOI UNK, IN ENGLISH,
1
PAGE 1 COPY (U).
2. DRAWING: DISPERSAL AREA - SARIN GAS (U), IN ARABIC AND
ENGLISH,
1 PAGE, 1 COPY (U).
3. DRAWING: DISPERSAL AREA - SULPHUR MUSTARD (U), IN ARABIC AND
ENGLISH, 1 PAGE, 1 COPY (U).
4. DRAWING: SAQR-30 BN ROCKET VOLLEY DISPERSAL AREA, MAXIMUM
RANGE
(U), IN ARABIC AND ENGLISH, 1 PAGE, 1 COPY (U).
ACQ: (U) [ b.2. ]
DISSEM: (U) NONE.
WARNING: (U) [ b.2. ]
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