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File: 950825_84205717.txtFilename:84205717 PATHFINDER RECORD NUMBER: 5717 GENDATE: 950623 NNNN TEXT: ENVELOPE CDSN = LGX088 MCN = 91312/37253 TOR = 913122109 PTTSZYUW RUEKJCS0130 3122109-RUEALGX. ZNY HEADER P 082109Z NOV 91 FM JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC INFO RUEKCCG/USDP-CCC WASHINGTON DC RUEALGX/SAFE P 081000Z NOV 91 FM DIRAFMIC FT DETRICK MD //AFMIC-ZA// TO RULYSCC/RULYSCC/COMSERVGRU TWO RULYSCC/COMSERVRON TWO RULYSCC/COMSERVRON FOUR RULYSCC/COMSERVRON EIGHT RULYSCC/MSSG ELEVEN RULYSCC/CTF PROVIDE COMFORT RULYSCC/USS BARNSTABLE COUNTY RUEDNTA/CDRUSANATICK NATICK MA //STRNC-API// RUVAFLC/ALCFHD WRIGHT PATTERSON AFB OH RUVKBRK/ALCC BROOKS AFB TX RUCJTXA/DET 1 11USAFCONTHOSP CARSWELL AFB TX //SGA// RUCLAIA/CDRTRADOC FT MONROE VA //ATBO-M// RUFTNPA/36TFW BITBURG AB GE //IN// RUSNTCC/652USAFCONTHOSP VAIHINGEN AB GE //SGAS// RHDLPGV/NAVENPVNTMEDU SEVEN NAPLES IT //02// RUQSAAA/7274ABG CLINIC RAF CHICKSANDS UK //SGP// AIG 6623 AIG 12630 CAD INTEL ALL THIRDFLT CAD INTEL ALL SEVENTHFLT RUEORDA/TCC FT DETRICK MD XMT CDR WESTCOM FT SHAFTER HI //APMD// HQ AFSC ANDREWS AFB MD //INJ// CDRUSAMEDDAC FT GEORGE G MEADE MD //PO-T// USAFAMRL WRIGHT PATTERSON AFB OH //CC/HET// COMCRUDESGRU TWELVE PATRON FIVE ZERO USS ENTERPRISE USS KITTY HAWK USS TARAWA BT SECTION 001 OF 004 /*********** THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE ************/ BODY SUBJ: SPECIAL WEEKLY WIRE 45-91B (U) IRAQ: ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT HEALTH THREATS AND CAPABILITIES (U) A. KEY JUDGMENTS RESTORATION OF IRAQ'S PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICES AND SHORTAGES OF MAJOR MEDICAL MATERIEL REMAIN DOMINANT INTERNATIONAL CONCERNS [ (b)(2) ] EFFORT TO KEEP PUBLIC OPINION FIRMLY AGAINST THE U.S. AND ITS COALITION ALLIES AND TO KEEP BLAME AWAY FROM THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT. DISEASE INCIDENCE ABOVE PRE-WAR LEVELS IS MORE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE REGIME'S INEQUITABLE POST-WAR RESTORATION OF PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICES RATHER THAN THE EFFECTS OF THE WAR AND UNITED NATIONS (UN)-IMPOSED SANCTIONS. ALTHOUGH CURRENT COUNTRYWIDE INFECTIOUS DISEASE INCIDENCE IN IRAQ IS HIGHER THAN IT WAS BEFORE THE GULF WAR, IT IS NOT AT THE CATASTROPHIC LEVELS THAT SOME GROUPS PREDICTED. THE IRAQI REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO EXPLOIT DISEASE INCIDENCE DATA FOR ITS OWN POLITICAL PURPOSES [ (b)(2) ] IRAQ'S MEDICAL SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE THE RESULT OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT'S STOCKPILING, SELECTIVE DISTRIBUTION, AND EXPLOITATION OF DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL RELIEF MEDICAL RESOURCES. COMPARED WITH PRE-WAR CAPABILITIES, HOSPITAL SERVICES HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED, WITH COMPREHENSIVE MEDICAL CARE AVAILABLE ONLY TO THE POLITICAL ELITE, THE VERY WEALTHY, AND THE MILITARY. POST-WAR REPORTING INDICATES THAT IRAQ MAY BE STORING NUCLEAR, BIOLOGICAL, AND CHEMICAL (NBC) MATERIALS IN OR AROUND HOSPITALS IN AN ATTEMPT TO CONCEAL THEM FROM UN SPECIAL OBSERVER TEAMS [ (b)(2) ] IF TRUE, THE STORAGE OF THESE MATERIALS IS CONTRARY TO BASIC SAFETY TENETS AND POSES A SERIOUS HEALTH THREAT TO HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS AND MEDICAL STAFF. B.[ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ] C. INFECTIOUS DISEASE INCIDENCE ALTHOUGH CURRENT COUNTRYWIDE INFECTIOUS DISEASE INCIDENCE IN IRAQ IS HIGHER THAN IT WAS PRIOR TO THE GULF WAR, IT IS NOT AT THE CATASTROPHIC LEVELS THAT SOME GROUPS PREDICTED. DISEASE INCIDENCE ABOVE PRE-WAR LEVELS IS MORE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE REGIME'S INEQUITABLE POST-WAR RESTORATION OF PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICES RATHER THAN THE EFFECTS OF THE WAR AND UN- IMPOSED SANCTIONS. [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ] LIFE IN BAGHDAD ESSENTIALLY HAS RETURNED TO NORMAL, WITH NO SIGNS OF POVERTY OR FOOD SHORTAGES. IN CONTRAST, INCREASED INFANT AND CHILD MORTALITY RATES, EVIDENCE OF CHILD MALNOURISHMENT, AND POOR SANITARY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE VULNERABLE GROUPS OUTSIDE OF BAGHDAD, PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN IRAQ. BECAUSE THE REGIME DID NOT REPORT ADEQUATE PRE-WAR DISEASE SURVEILLANCE DATA AND CURRENT DISEASE REPORTING APPEARS POLITICALLY-BIASED, THE CURRENT DISEASE SITUATION IN IRAQ IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS. PRE-WAR DISEASE SURVEILLANCE DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR COMPARISON; THEREFORE, IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT AMOUNT OF CURRENT DISEASE INCIDENCE REPORTED THROUGH THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT REFLECTS NORMAL INCIDENCE LEVELS. [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ] LINKING INCREASED DISEASE MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY (PARTICULARLY CHOLERA, TYPHOID FEVER, HEPATITIS A, GIARDIASIS, AMEBIC DYSENTERY, BRUCELLOSIS, AND ECHINOCOCCOSIS) TO VACCINE AND MEDICINE SHORTAGES CREATED BY THE INTERNATIONAL EMBARGO ARE PARTICULARLY MISLEADING. THESE DISEASES ARE FUNDAMENTALLY PREVENTED THROUGH BASIC /****** BEGINNING OF SECTION 002 ******/ SANITATION AND HYGIENE, NOT PUBLIC VACCINATIONS OR CURATIVE MEDICINE. THEREFORE, MUCH OF THE CURRENT REPORTING IS REGARDED AS AN ATTEMPT TO GAIN INTERNATIONAL SYMPATHY. IN ADDITION, MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY FORECASTS PUBLICLY PROVIDED BY INTERNATIONAL AND PRIVATE MEDICAL ORGANIZATIONS FREQUENTLY HAVE BEEN BASED ON INCOMPLETE INFORMATION. BAGHDAD HAS RESTRICTED THE ACCESS OF FOREIGN OBSERVERS, LIMITING THE QUANTITY AND QUALITY OF COLLECTED DATA. MANY OF THE EARLY POST-WAR ESTIMATES ASSUMED THAT HEALTH AND LIVING CONDITIONS WOULD NOT IMPROVE, WHICH LED TO SIGNIFICANT OVERESTIMATES OF PROJECTED MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY RATES. BECAUSE OF THE RESTORATION OF ESSENTIAL SERVICES AND INTERNATIONAL RELIEF EFFORTS, THE UNITED NATIONS CHILDREN'S FUND (UNICEF) RECENTLY REDUCED ITS ESTIMATES OF IRAQI CHILDREN AT-RISK FROM 170,000 CHILDREN TO BETWEEN 50,000 AND 80,000 CHILDREN. INFECTIOUS DISEASE INCIDENCE IN AREAS WHERE SERVICES ARE RESTORED IS LIKELY TO STABILIZE IN A RANGE THAT IS SOMEWHAT ABOVE PRE-WAR LEVELS, WITH DISCRIMINATED GROUPS (PARTICULARLY KURDS AND SHIITES) SUSTAINING SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER DISEASE INCIDENCE. WITH THE ADVENT OF WINTER, CASES OF ACUTE RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS, PREVENTABLE CHILDHOOD DISEASES (MEASLES, DIPHTHERIA, AND PERTUSSIS), AND MENINGOCOCCAL MENINGITIS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN POPULATIONS RECEIVING INADEQUATE PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICES. THE IRAQI REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO EXPLOIT THE HARDSHIPS OF DISCRIMINATED GROUPS FOR ITS OWN DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL PURPOSES. D. [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ] F. STORAGE OF NBC MATERIALS IN HOSPITALS [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ] THE IRAQI MILITARY IS STORING NUCLEAR, BIOLOGICAL, AND CHEMICAL (NBC) MATERIALS IN OR AROUND HOSPITALS IN AN EFFORT TO CONCEAL THEM FROM UN SPECIAL OBSERVER TEAMS. THE HEALTH THREAT TO PATIENTS AND MEDICAL STAFF IS BORNE OUT BY IRAQ'S HISTORICAL LACK OF REGARD CONCERNING SAFE HANDLING AND STORAGE OF NBC MATERIAL. REPORTS OF ACCIDENTAL CHEMICAL AGENT EXPOSURE AMONG IRAQI MILITARY PERSONNEL DATE BACK TO THE IRAN/IRAQ WAR. [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ] MOREOVER, MOST CIVILIAN IRAQI PHYSICIANS LACK THE CAPABILITY TO DIAGNOSE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF CHEMICAL AGENT EXPOSURE. SUSPECT MEDICAL FACILITIES BELIEVED TO BE HOUSING NBC MATERIAL INCLUDE THE SADDAM HUSSEIN MEDICAL CITY AND THE AL RASHID HOSPITAL, BOTH LOCATED IN BAGHDAD (33-21N 044-25E), THE SADDAM HUSSEIN GENERAL HOSPITAL IN KIRKUK 35-28N 044-23E), THE MOSUL HOSPITAL (36-21-28N 043-07-00E), AND THE DAGALAH HOSPITAL (36-09N 044-23E). [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ] G. [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ][ (b)(6) ][ (b)(2) ] BT #0133 INFODATE: 0
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