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DISEASE INFORMATION Filename:0504rept.91 From: [ (b)(6) ] ~ Date and time ~ 15:18:37 ======================================--=================== Date: Jan 91 15:18:35 EST From:
To: Subject: DISEASE INFORMATION Comments: Forwarding note of Jan 91 15:17:40-EST from From: -- *** Forwarding note from AFMICOPS--FSTCVMl 01/22/91 15:17 *** Date: Jan 91 15:17:40 EST From: To: arcentg2@sandman.[ b.2. ] Subject: DISEASE INFORMATION From: 1. Please Pass the attached information to: ARCENT G2 ARCENT G5 ARCENT SURGEON [ (b)(6) ] 2. As this is our first attempt over this circuit, please respond upon receip of this message. SUBJECT: Effects of Bombing on Disease Occurrence in Baghdad ANALYST: [ (b)(6) ] DATE: JAN 91 SUMMARY: Food- and waterborne diseases have the greatest potential for outbreaks in the civilian and military population over the next 30 to 60 days. Increased incidence of diseases will be attributable to degradation of normal preventive medicine, waste disposal, water purification/distribution, electricity, and decreased ability to control disease outbreaks. Any urban are in Iraq that has received infrastructure damage will have similar problems. The following diseases are prioritized in descending order of expected outbreak potential in Baghdad over the next 30 to 60 days. Prioritization is based on level of endemicity, seasonal distribution, and mode of transmission. 1. FOOD- AND WATER-BORNE DISEASES: Disease Primary Agents/Comments a. Acute Diarrheas Bacterial: E. coli, Shigella spp., and Salmonella spp. Protozoal: Giardia lamblia (particularly children) and Entamoeba histolytica Viral: Rotavirus (primarily children) b. Typhoid/Paratyphoid Salmonella typhi, S. paratyphi c. Cholera Difficult to assess. Poorly reported. Outbreaks possible. NOTE: Hepatitis A (HAV) is highly endemic, and therefore causes a limited threat to the indigenous population. -~ 2. OTHER ENDEMIC DISEASES: a. Influenza Strain A(H3N2) predominates over A(HlNl) and B. b. Meningococcal Group A predominates, but W135 reporting has Meningitis increased. Associated with overcrowding. c. Childhood Diseases Primarily measles, but also diphtheria and pertussis. d. Trachoma Associated with poor personal hygiene. e. Intestinal Helminths Primarily ascariasis, ancylostomiasis, enterobiasis, trichuriasis. |SUBJECT: Effects of Bombing on Disease Occurrence in Baghdad 3. VECTORBORNE DISEASES: Generally, vectorborne diseases are more of a lon term problem, with increased transmission occurring after 60 days. However, increased incidence can be expected, especially in a prolonged military campaign. a. Louse-borne typhus Rickettsia prowazekii. Associated with poor hygiene and overcrowding, especially in winter months. b. Leishmaniasis Primarily cutaneous form due to Leishmania tropica. Focal increase associated with debris accumulation. c. Malaria Currently no indigenous transmission and considered a low risk. Potential vectors are present. 4. More detailed explanations on conditions affecting expected disease occurrence are available. Extrapolation of this analysis should only be done after further consultation with AFMIC analysts. |SUBJECT: Iraq - Medical Civil Defense Preparations and BW Propoganda [ (b)(6) ] DATE: JAN 91 According to open source press releases in November and December, several Iraqi ministries delivered public health information announcements outlining precautions that civilians should be taking because of the Persian Gulf crisis Early guidelines by the Ministry of Local Government called on citizens to avoid careless use of drinking water, such as using it for watering domestic gardens and washing cars and sidewalks". In late December, the Baghdad Domesti Service stated that 'the enemy may resort to biological war means on human, animal, or plant targets; these germs include bacteria, viruses-, fungi, and parasites which cause malaria and dysentery". Also, the announcement provided guidelines in the following subject areas for protecting personnel, facilities food/water supplies, and crops from these biological agents: A. Health precautions (NFI) to reduce possibility of contamination. B. Isolation of infected persons and contaminated areas to prevent spread of disease. C. "Sterilization" (decontamination) of infected persons and contaminated equipment and areas. D. Proper storage of food and water to avoid contamination. E. Plans to protect crops. Comment: These types of statements would increase public awareness and encourage the civilian population to take additional preventive measures against health problems (such as medical shortages and disease outbreaks) that would result from an infrastructure weakened by sanctions or military conflict Early statements may represent a legitimate attempt by the Iraqi government to prepare the civilian population. However, as the United Nations deadline approached, the Iraqi government's tactics became more exploitative as indicated by the "biological war" announcement propagandizing a possible U.S. biological threat. (See AFMIC Weekly Wire 50-90 for additional information on similar disinformation statements.) The government disinformation citing potential increases of endemic diseases that are not biological warfare candidates would allow the government to blame the United States for public health problems created by military conflict. Additionally, an even more subversive motive could have formed the rationale for the disinformation campaign. The statements would create a scenario that would allow the U.S. to be blamed for potential civilian biological warfare (BW) casualties resulting from Iraqi BW use or contamination by agents released as a result of damage inflicted by coalition forces on BW facilities. Military planners, particularly civil affairs and humanitarian assistance groups, and political officials should be aware of the potential for the Iraqi population to blame coalition forces for these problems.
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