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No Subject Line Found Filename:011pgv.91p 3-28-91 Assessment of the BW Threat against U.S. Forces in Southern Iraq and Civilians in Iraq Prior to Operation Desert Storm, [ (b)(2) ] assessed that Iraq had a mature biological warfare (BW) program, with anthrax and botulinum toxin having reached the weaponization stage by December 1990. Although may details of the program were known, [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ] Subsequent coalition bombing of identified Iraqi BW facilities seriously damaged Iraq's capability to produce, weaponize and store biological agents. However, numerous unverified reports have alleged that Iraq either had planned redundancy in the system by establishing back-up BW facilities or was able to move production capabilities and stockpiles to alternate sites prior to or during hostilities. To date, none of these alleged facilities have been located. Furthermore, no biological agents were used against coalition forces during hostilities, and no biological munitions were found in the Kuwaiti Theater of Operations (KTO). Possible reasons for Iraq's failure to use BW are 1) difficulty in moving the weapons to the theater of operations, 2) fear of the consequences BW use might engender, 3) inappropriate meteorological conditions for BW use, 4) destruction of Iraq's BW use capability by allied bombing, 5) lack of confidence in the weapons or 6) an inability to actually weaponize the agents in the first place. We believe that Iraq retains a vestigial capability to produce and deliver BW agents. However, we assess that Iraq is unlikely to use BW against U.S. forces remaining in the area because Saddam Hussein perceives that to do so would initiate resumption of hostilities and provide the coalition a reason to forcibly remove him from power. In addition, Iraq's capability to transport and use BW agents, if any still exist, is seriously degraded. Although we assess that Iraq is unlikely to use BW against rebel forces and civilians in Iraq, Saddam is more likely to use BW against rebel forces in Iraq than against coalition forces because he may believe that use within the country would be difficult to prove.
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