Defense Intelligence Assessment

File: 950925_02200639_89.txt
Page: 89
Total Pages: 1
Defense Intelligence Assessment

Filename:02200639.89
Subject: Defense Intelligence Assessment

IRAQI Military Developments Through 1992

Key Judgements





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	Baghdad is actively pursuing chemical and biological warfare 
(CW/BW) capabilities, as well as nuclear weapons research and 
development. It is now one of the largest chemical weapons 
producers in the Third World, but it is unlikely to produce a 
nuclear device before the mid to late 19905 because it lacks the 
technical expertise and a ready supply of fissionable material.






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[   (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)   ]




Special Weapons Development

	The utility of special weapons was a lesson well learned by 
Iraq during the Iran-Iraq war. Baghdad is working to expand its 
chemical and biological warfare capabilities as well as to develop
its own SRBM and ballistic missile defense systems. We also 
believe that Iraq has a nuclear weapons research and development 
program.

Chemical Warfare (CW)

	Iraq was producing limited amounts of chemical agents before 
the war with Iran, and expanded its production infrastructure 
rapidly after the war started. It is now, and will likely remain, 
one of the largest CW producers in the Third World. Baghdad's 
current production capacity of 3,000 tons a year of nerve (tabun,
sarin, and GF) and mustard agents is likely to increase. Iraq is 
expected to begin producing the persistent nerve agent VX or an 
analog of VX this year. The Iraqis are also starting to use 
domestic raw materials to produce phosphorous chemicals, and Iraq 
may no longer need to rely on foreign suppliers of CW precursors 
in the near future. 

Biological Warfare (BW)

	Iraq is pursuing a BW program that could result in 
weaponization of some agents shortly, if it has not already 
occurred; A number of toxins and infectious agents have been    
investigated. The most likely BW agents under development are 
bacillus anthracis and botulinum toxin. Others under investigation 
 include cholera, staphylococcal enterotoxin, clostridium 
perfringens, and brucella abortus. While the exact status of 
weaponization is not know with certainty, Baghdad could easily 
employ some of the same delivery systems it has for CW 
dissemination, such as aerosol generators and aerial bombs.







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