Iraqi Defense Industry and Rearmament Objectives

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Iraqi Defense Industry and Rearmament Objectives

Filename:057pgv.91p
[   (b)(2)   ][   (b)(6)   ]


Subject: Iraqi Defense Industry and Rearmament Objectives

Summary:  In the aftermath of the war, Baghdad will place a high 
priority on the restoration of its armed forces and its military 
industrial base.  Its nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) 
warfare facilities and ballistic missile weapons capabilities are 
unlikely to survive the war intact.  The scope and pace of the 
Iraqi rearmament campaign will depend on the magnitude of combat 
losses and the resulting size of surviving forces, the nature of 
the postwar government, the extent of outside assistance;_and the 
level of oil revenues.

Defense Industry won't Survive the war
	
[   (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)   ] Iraq's ability to produce NBC weapons 
will be largely negated by the end of the war, as will its 
ballistic missile production capability.  The only surviving 
military industrial facilities probably will be capable only of 
the manufacture of small arms and small caliber ammunition.

Initial Emphasis on Rebuilding Military and Industrial Capacity 
Following the resolution of the current crisis, the top priority 
for Baghdad will be the rearmament of its military, sufficient to 
make a credible defense of its territory, and the reestablishment 
of its military industrial base.  Iraq's ultimate objective will 
be to reconstruct a military force, including weapons of mass 
destruction, consonant with its ambitions for regional dominance.

Baghdad will probably turn first to its traditional arms 
suppliers: [   (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)   ].  However, [   (b)(1) sec 
1.3(a)(4)   ] with more advanced equipment might hesitate to sell 
to Iraq and Baghdad may have to settle for less capable equipment 
[   (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)   ].

[      (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)    ]










  If the Iraqis should choose to rebuild a chemical and biological 
weapon or missile production capability, and could successfully 
circumvent sanctions, production could begin in 5-10 years. 
Manufacture of a nuclear weapon would not be likely before the 
year 2000.  Given economic constraints, it will take more than a 
decade for the arms industry to reemerge. 

[   (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)   ]








Iraq's nuclear, biological, chemical (NBC) and missile weapons 
production capability should be largely eliminated by the end of 
the war.  Post war priorities will be rearming the military and 
rebuilding the military production infrastructure.  The extent of 
the rearmament effort will depend on combat losses, the nature of 
the Iraqi regime, and whether international military sanctions 
will remain in place.
  
In addition, Baghdad will probably try to reestablish contacts 
with business partners who had been helping Iraq set-up its 
industry prior to the war.  In addition, the civilian sector will 
require significant investment amounting to tens of billions of 
dollars.  Even if the military sector is given priority, the 
rearmament program will be delayed by a lack of funds and 
competing civilian
needs 

[   (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)   ]