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File: 950925_0905pgv_91.txt
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[ (b)(2) ]
2030/4JAN9l     SENT BY [ (b)(6) ]


     Question 1: "Can Iraq mobilize elite forces in a timely 
fashion ?"

     With a starting date of 1 January 91, Iraq would find it very 
difficult to call up, train, organize, equip, deploy, and sustain 
elite forces by January 15th.

    Iraq has the capability to mobilize and deploy new forces in 
less than 90 days, although these forces would be the least 
capable ground forces in terms of over all combat efficiency.

    Newly mobilized forces would require well in excess of 90 days 
to achieve an status, and it appears that serious constraints 
exist to Iraq's capability to resource elite forces, particularly 
in respect to personnel and equipment.

    At the start of the crisis, Iraq had a manpower pool of 
veterans who had been discharged, temporarily released from active 
duty, or were reservists. However, it appears that most of these 
personnel have already been recalled to active duty, either to 
increase the end strength of existing units or to form the
cadre of units largely manned with inexperienced soldiers.

    Iraq has mobilized a number of divisions since 02 August, 
however, all of them appear to have substantially less combat 
capability than comparable Republican Guard Forces Command 

         Question 2:  "Does Iraq have stinger missiles"?
         Question 3:  "Can Iraq put chemicals on its SCUD's"?
         The following had been cleared previously for release at 
the unclassified level:

    Iraq has a formidable chemical weapons capability. It has more 
battlefield experience using chemical weapons than any other 
country In the world. In addition to inflicting Iran with 
significant numbers of chemical casualties during the Iran-Iraq 
War, Saddam Husayn authorized use of these weapons against his own 
Kurdish population. Iraq has the capability to deliver its arsenal 
of nerve and blister agents to virtually any depth of the tactical 
battlefield. Iraqi chemical delivery means include artillery, 
rockets, aircraft, and missiles.

    Some of Iraq's chemical weapons are better suited for use as 
terror weapons against civilian population centers. This is 
especially true of his missile systems which are relatively 
inaccurate. Iraq's missiles are not considered a significant 
threat to military point targets. Aircraft, commonly used during 
Iran-Iraq War to deliver chemical agent, would have to overcome 
the superior air defense systems of coalition forces to become a 
viable delivery option. In spite of these mitigating factors, 
Iraq's chemical weapons pose a threat to the coalition, if timely 
protective measures are not taken prior to an attack.

    Iraq is also developing biological weapons and working 
diligently to obtain a nuclear capability. Like chemical weapons, 
Iraq's biological agents are well suited for use against civilian 
or military population centers.

    Prepared by:               [ (b)(6) ]



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