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SUBJECT:  POINT PAPER ON BDA


POINT PAPER 

ON

BDA -- DESERT STORM, DAY 6 -- OPERATOR'S LOOK
(As of 23 Jan 91/0500 Baghdad)

OVERALL ASSESSMENT:  Moderate to heavy physical damage in all terget categories; assessable by BDA.  Iraqi leadership's ability and desire to continue the war more difficult to determine.

ASSESSMENT BY TAEGET CATEGORY:

- Airfileds:  Moderate temporary degradation.

	-- Air operations continue at a low level.

		--- Some ops noted from dispersal/highway strips

	-- Airfields capable of supporting limited operations.

		--- Moderate damage to runways, taxiways, and aircraft shelters; energetic runway repair efforts continue.

		--- Some C3 degradation.

	-- Itaqi AF suffered little attrition so far; lots of planes and pilots remain.

		--- Still a serious threat; battle for the air not yet won.

- Strategic Air Defense:  Degraded, not destroyed.

	-- After initial severe disruption, air defense C3 system showing some signs of recovery, improvement, and some intensification.

		--- Several IOICs/SOCs heavily damaged;  {b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]

	--  Iraqi SAM fire discipline improving;  AAA still firing in barrages but lethal.

	-- New tactics being deployed

[b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]

- Leadership: Control functions disrupted.  Driven underground.

	-- Peacetime leadership facilities heavily damaged; normal government operations greatly disrupted.

	-- Iraqi government's normal control severely degraded.

[b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]

		--- Bunkers bieng destroyed; only provide temporary safety.

- Communications:  Seriously disrupted, not destroyed.

	-- Heavy damage to Baghdad communications nets.

		--- Baghdad area communications heavily degraded; telecom out, TV sporadic/weak signals.

		--- 4 of 6 major Baghdad comm centers destroyed; Main Ministry of Defense Computer Center destroyed.

[b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]

- SCUD System: Some success but still able to fire.

	-- Limited damage to fixed launchers; 6 of 30 launchers inoperable.
	
		--- Recent strikes [b.1. sec. 1.5.a.]     destroyed several fixed launch sites at Qasr Amij and Wadi Al Jabariyah.

	--  Limited sucess in finding /destroying mobile launchers; 10 cliamed destroyed (no photo confirmation).
	
	-- Some damge to storage/production facilities.

- Chem/NBC:  Systematic destruction continuing.

	-- Moderate to severe damage to NBC facilities.

	-- Viability of Baghdad Nuclear Research Facility in question.

		--- Isis nuclear reactor destroyed; Soviet reactor building destroyed.

	-- Heavy damage to chemical warfare production system.

		--  Iraqi capability to produce CW agents has been significantly reduced; 40% of Samarra production plants inoperable.

			--- 40-50% decrease in nerve agent and mustard gas production.

			--- 70% of CW munitions filling buildings destroyed.

	-- 6 CW plants still operable.

	-- Moderate to heavy damage to biological warfare production system.

		--- Taji and Abu Ghurayb production plants show considerable damage; probably inoperable.

		--- Salman Pak plant remains although both refrigerated storage bunkers believed destroyed (1 confirmed, 1 probable).

- Electricity: Severe disruption.

	-- Baghdad electrical power remains shut down.

		--- Bayji Thermal Powerplant (largest in country and major contributor to Baghdad) shut down.

	-- Shortages/outages throughout Iraq.

		--- Blackouts expected to be frequest and long-term over next several weeks.

- Oil:  Degraded production/distribution capability.

	-- Based on limited BDA, 2 of 3 major refineries are not operating (including Baghdad facility).

		--- Over 50% of Iraqi refining capacity affected.

- Military Support & Production: Destruction continuing.

	-- Heavy damage to some storage and production facilities; Latifiy and Iskanariyah Arms Plant.

-  Naval:

	-- No information yet.

- Republican Guards: Remain in place.

	-- Under heavy air attack; C3 and logistics degraded in some units especially near FLOT.

	-- All units still considered combat effective although light losses have been sustained.

- Railroads/Bridges:  Railroads apparently not moving, bridges still standing.

	-- No systemic damage to RR and bridge system.

		--- Misses on Al Basrah bridge over canal

		--- No BDA on F-117 strikes.

	-- 4 tracks severed at Az Zubayr RR Station/Yard

		--- Yard utilization assessed to be severely restricted for a limited time.

SUMMARY:  Desert Storm continues well; caution must still be exercised.  Much remains to be done: Iraqi Air Force and SCUDs still a serious threat; too early to shift effort to deployed Iraqi groud forces.

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