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continue to strengthen their defensive positions and dig ih, although these

forces are capable of shifting to offensive operations with little notice.

Their forward line consists of infantry divisions dug in along the Saudi

border and along the Gulf coast.    There are heavy divisions behind them

and a strategic reserve of armored divisions further north along the Iraq-

Kuwait   border.


      The  forward-deployed forces   are supported by a series of man-made

obstacles, including:   barbed wire, minefields, anti-tank trenches, and

infantry  fortifications.


      As you know, Saddam recently announced plans to reinforce this

already large Iraqi force with an additional 250,000 troops.   In my view,

given the enormous force Iraq has already deployed forward, it is not clear

that adding these less capable units will significantly enhance Iraq1s

combat capability.   In fact, it could actually present Saddam with some

new vulnerabilities because he must also remain vigilant with respect to

his northern and western borders with Turkey and Syria.     He, of course,

also has a long, armed border with Iran in the East.


      We believe that Saddam will continue to strengthen his defensive

positions by constructing and improving fortifications and obstacles.   While

Iraq certainly has sufficient forces in the theater to conduct offensive

operations, the Iraqis would first have to reposition a number of forces

which, along with other indications, would provide us with some warning

of impending   attack.

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