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File: 120396_oct96_decls1_0001.txt
Subject: NAVAL BIOLOGICAL WARFARE HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR OP DS
Unit: US NAVY
Parent Organization: US NAVY
Box ID: BX300105
Folder Title: FOLDER MESSAGE FILES 10-25 JAN 91 8 OF 22
Document Number: 31
Folder SEQ #: 8
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N A V A L M E S S A G E
D E P T 0 F N A V Y
UNCLASSIFIED
PRIORITY ZYIJW RUCKSGG3172 0170126 SUFFICIENT TO INFECT 50 PERCENT OF EXPOSED PERSONNEL (ID50) CAN BE
P 162136Z JAN 91 ZYB ACHIEVED AT DOWNWIND DISTANCES OF 100 KM TO OVER 18D KM. IN CONTRAST,
FM NAVSWC DAHLGREN VA//fl3l// DAYTIME CONDITIONS WHICH ARE LESS FAVORABLE TO THE ATTACKER ARE
TO CNO WASHINGTON DC//OP703/OPO6/OPO93,'/ CHARACTERIZED BY STABILITY CATEGORY C WITH MIXING LAYERS IN EXCESS
COMNAVSEASYSCDt4 WASHINGTON DCl/5bX2510511241@5D]i OF IDOD METERS. IN THIS SITUATION, ID50'$ MAY ONLY BE ACHIEVED AT
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N541// CIIJCLA[ITFLT NORFOLK VA//N96// DOWNWIND DISTANCES OF 4 KM TO 70 KM. OVER WATER, ATMOSPHERIC
CMD SPT MCRDAC QUANTICO VA//AWT// STABILITY CAN VARY FROM BETWEEN E AND D AT NIGHT TO BETWEEN D AND
BONED WASHINGTON DC//02C// C DURING THE DAY. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SUMMARIZES DATA FOR
CINCPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI//355// INDIVIDUAL RELEASES IN VARIOUS MET CONDITIONS
MUNITION STAB CAT WIND SPEED (KM) I X W (KM)
INFO CNR ARLINGTON VA//ONT-223// SCUD-B D-DAY OR NIGHT 7.8 95 x 5
NAVTECHINTCEN WASHINGTON DC//DA31// BOMBLETS E-NIGHT 6.8 195 x 5
ZEN/COMNAVSPACECON DAHLGREN VA//N2// MISTRAL IN C-DAY 8.9 56 X 7
NRL WASHINGTON DC//609011 BOAT D-DAY OR NIGHT 6.8 165 x 10
NAVOCEANO BAY ST LOUIS MS/IJJJ// E-NIGHT 5.2 124 X 10
FLENUMOCEANCEN MONTEREY CA//30// MISTRAL C-DAY 8.9 72 X 6
CTG ONE SIX EIGHT PT ZERO STATIONARY D-DAY OR NIGHT 6.8 178 X 7
CONSPAWARSYSCOM WASHINGTON DC//JJJ/Y E-MIGHT 5.2 130 X 7
CFANAVINTCOM WASHINGTON DCI/333/1 AIRCRAFT C-DAY 9.9 4 X 53
SPRAY D-DAY OR NIGHT 8.2 31 X 53
//NO3400// 5 U.S.C. 552 (b)(1) E-NIGHT 8.7 190 X 54
SECTION 01 OF 02 6. THE LONG DOWNWIND DISTANCES SHOWN ABOVE ARE BASED ON
LOGICAL WARFARE HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR OPERATION A PERSONNEL BREATHING RATE OF ONLY 15 LITERS PER MINUTE. EVEN LARGER
DESERT SHIELD@ AREAS WOULD ACHIEVE ID50'S Al HIGHER BREATHING RATES. IT IS ALSO
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVSWC DAHLGRENVA// LIKELY THAT THE MISTRAL SPRAYER IS A SIGNIFICANTLY 14ORE EFFICIENT
REF/A/TEL/NAVSWC/16JAN91// DISSEMINATION SYSTEM THAN AN AIRCRAFT SPRAY TANK AND AGAIN, MUCH
AMPN/REF A IS TELCON BETWEEN NAVSWC/HORTON AND CNO/CAPT RINN// GREATER DOWNWIND DISTANCES MAY BE ACHIEVABLE. THERE IS INSUFFICIENT
RMKS/1. (U) NAVOCEANO BAY ST LOUIS MS PLEASE PASS TO LCDR STEINER. INFORMATION TO ALLOW MODELING OF THE MISTRAL'S DRY DELIVERY
2. (U) SUBJECT FINDINGS DISCUSSED WITH OP03C. CAPABILITY. HOWEVER, DRY DISSEMINATION IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
3. NAVSWC HAS BEEN CONDUCTING AN ASSESSMENT Of THE EFFICIENT THAN THE WET DISSEMINATION IN THE ABOVE TABLE. THE GREATEST
HAZARD TO NAVAL FORCES IN THE PERSIAN GULF FROM COVERT AND OVERT LIMITATION DN DOWNWIND COVERAGE IS THE RAPID DISPERSION WHICH IS
CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL ATTACKS BY IRAQ. WHILE INFORMATION USED As TYPICAL OF DAYTIME CONDITIONS. WHILE A CLOUD MAY EASILY TRAVEL
INPUTS FOR THIS ASSESSMENT WAS OBTAINED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES, DURING THE ENTIRE DURATION OF THE RIGHT, AFTER DAWN THE MIXING HEIGHT
THE RESULTS HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED OR VALIDATED BY ANY OTHER RISES, ALLOWING RAPID VERTICAL DIFFUSION AND DILUTION AND RESULTING
BE PROVIDED IN MINIMAL ADDITIONAL DOWNWIND TRAVEL. INDIVIDUAL CLOUDS OF AGENT
TO AN INTERNATIONAL PANEL OF EXPERTS ON MAY BE UP TO SEVERAL KILOMETERS WIDE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WIND
14-16 JANUARY 1991 FOR REVIEW. THE SELECTION OF AG WHEN THEY REACH THE SHIP.
14UNITIONS BELIEVED TO BE AVAILABLE 10 IRAQ WAS MAE 7. BASED o% THE SHIP LOCATIONS BEING OBTAINED FROM
NTIC. METEOROLOGICAL DATA FOR THE PERSIAN GULF WAS JOTSII, I E@TANDARD SCUD-B DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT RANGE TO BE A
THE NAVAL OCEANOGRAPHY COMMAND (CNOC), FLEET NLMER CREDIBLE COVERT ATTACK WEAPON. ITS USE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AGAINST
CENTER CFNOC), THE DEFENCE RESEARCH ESTABLISHMENT AN A14PHIBIDUS ASSAULT WHEN MORE SHIPS AND MANY MORE PERSONNEL WOULD
CANADA, AND THE CHEMICAL DEFENCE ESTABLISHMENT (CO BE WITHIN RANGE. THE LARGE CEP OF THE SCUD BECOMES LESS SIGNIFICANT
INFORMATION ON LOCATION OF BLUE FORCE SHIPS WAS DE WHEN DELIVERING ANTHRAX BECAUSE Of THE LARGE DISTANCES WHICH THE
NAVAL SPACE COMMAND USING JOT5II. FUNDING FOR ALL CLOUD CAN TRAVEL. MULTIPLE STATIDNARY MISTRAL SPRAYERS WOULD ALSO BE
EFFORT FROM MODEL DEVELOPMENT TO DATA PRESENTAT10h EFFECTIVE IN COUNTERING AN AMPHIBIOUS ASSAULT. EVEN FROM THE IRAQ/
BY ONT UNDER PE 62233N CB DEFENSE. KUWAIT BORDER, 140BILE TRUCK MOUNTED OR DUG IN SPRAYERS COULD
HE
AWARENESS OF THE EXTREMELY LARGE AREA COVERAGES AND DOWNWIND PREVAILING NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TYPICAL OF JANUARY NIGHTS. THE
DISTANCES WHICH CAN BE ACHIEVED BY BIOLOGICAL ATTACKS. ALTHOUG MISTRAL SPRAYER MOUNTED IN A SMALL BOAT OR SHIP AND THE AIRCRAFT
MILITARY RESPIRATORS PROVIDE EXCELLENT PROTECTION AGAINST ANT@ SPRAYER COULD BE USED EITHER COVERTLY PRIOR TO THE START Of
HOSTILITIES OR OVERTLY AFTERWARDS. IT IS REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT
TO DATE, PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENTS ERVE BEEN 14AGE FOP A SUITABLE SMALL BOAT COULD GET WITHIN THE 50 KM TO 150 KM DELIVERY
DISSEMINATION OF ANTHRAX SPORES IN WET FORM (TR-1) FROM THE MI RANGE OF A PORT FACILITY SUCH AS BAHRAIN AND COVER ALL OF BAHRAIN
-2 AGRICULTURAL SPRAYER MOUNTED ON SMALL BOATS OR TRUCKS, AIR( BT
MOUNTED SPRAY SYSTEMS AND A SCUD-B FILLED WITH BOMBLETS. IT SF //NO3400//
BE NOTED THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO CONFIRMATION THAT ANY OF THES FINAL SECTION OF 02
SYSTEMS VILL BE USED BY IRAQ FOR BW. ALSO, ALTHOUGH IRAQ Is ARE HAIARD ASSESSMENT FOR OPERATION
ASSESSED TO HAVE BULK FILLED CHEMICAL WARHEADS FOR THEIR SCUD
MISSILES, IT 15 NOT KNOWN IF THEY POSSESS BOMBLET WARHEADS. I A IS loll
BELIEVED TO HAVE CLUSTER BOMBS; IF FILLED WITH TR-1, THESE BO N
PRODUCE DOSAGE FOOTPRINTS SIMILAR TO THE SCUD-B WITH SUBMUNITIONS B. (U@FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATIDN, CONTACT ROGER GIBBS OR PAUL KIRK
T IS WELL KNOWN THAT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WflicH AND R ER ENGELS ON OR COMMERCIAL
CAN EXIST AT NIGHT OVER LAND ARE VERY CONDUCIVE TO BW ATTACKS. THE DECL/OADR// BT
EXTREMELY LOW MIXING LAYER HEIGHT SERVES TO MINIMIZE VERTICAL 5 U.S.C. 552 (b)(7)(C)
DISPERSION OF THE AGENT AND EXTINCTION OF ANTHRAX SPORES IN THE
ABSENCE OF SUNLIGHT IS VIRTUALLY ZERO. WHEN THE MET CONDITIONS FAVOR
THE ATTACKER, AT140SPHERIC STABILITY CATEGORY E EXISTS AND DOSAGES
CNO WASH DC ADV 42
ACTION 70(l) (U,F)
INFO 00(l@ CNO GRID(L) 09(i@ qgg(l) 095@1) 08(i) BO(l) DECLASSIFIED
01(l) 02(l) 03(i) 07EG(l) 30(i) 35@1) 37(l) 39(i)
04(l) i 41(l) 42(l) 44(l) 05(li 50(l) 51(l) ON: 23 OCT 96
55(i) al(Pil) 60(l) 61(l) 64(l) 093(l) 932(t) 76(l)
07(l) 71(i) 75(l) 73(l) DS(l) 74(l@ NRC(L) NCC(L) BY: DON GWDP IAW OPNAVINST 5513. SERIES
§221(1 ) sc(l) MCN=91017/03517 TOR=91(PNP2@SS)FdgPOI7/0216Z CDSN=MAN779
PAGE I OF 1
162136Z JAN 91
-SEeRE9f 02 SECT MSG
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Document 1 f:/Week-41/BX300105/FOLDER MESSAGE FILES 10-25 JAN 91 8 OF 22/naval biological warfare hazard assessment for o:1112961011003
Control Fields 17
File Room = oct96_declassified
File Cabinet = Week-41
Box ID = BX300105
Unit = US NAVY
Parent Organization = US NAVY
Folder Title = FOLDER MESSAGE FILES 10-25 JAN 91 8 OF 22
Folder Seq # = 8
Subject = NAVAL BIOLOGICAL WARFARE HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR O
Document Seq # = 31
Document Date =
Scan Date =
Queued for Declassification = 01-JAN-1980
Short Term Referral = 01-JAN-1980
Long Term Referral = 01-JAN-1980
Permanent Referral = 01-JAN-1980
Non-Health Related Document = 01-JAN-1980
Declassified = 12-NOV-1996