Many
veterans of the Gulf War have expressed concern that their unexplained illnesses
may have resulted from their experiences in that war. In response to veterans’
concerns, the Department of Defense established a task force in June 1995 to
investigate those incidents and circumstances relating to possible causes. The
Special Assistant to the Deputy Secretary of Defense for Gulf War Illnesses
took over responsibility for these investigations on November 12, 1996.
Effective April 5, 2001, the Special Assistant to the Under Secretary of Defense
(Personnel and Readiness) for Gulf War Illnesses, Medical Readiness, and Military
Deployments assumed responsibility for Gulf War issues.
This technical
report describes the details of the modeling and risk characterization of the
possible chemical warfare agent exposure resulting from the demolition at the
Khamisiyah Pit following the cease fire for the Gulf War of 1991. The Department
used the hazard areas predicted by each combination of an ensemble of models
to predict possible exposure. The Department sent letters to approximately 99,000
veterans in 1997 and to 101,000 in 2000, advising them that they were possibly
exposed to low-levels of chemical warfare agents. It is important to note that
the modeling process is based on computer simulations and, although based on
best science at the time, still carry some uncertainties.
If you
have further questions regarding the technical details of our modeling and risk
characterization, please call:
1-800-497-6261
William Winkenwerder,
Jr., MD
Assistant Secretary of Defense (Health Affairs) and
Special Assistant to the Under Secretary of Defense (Personnel and Readiness)
for Gulf War Illnesses, Medical Readiness, and Military Deployments
Department of Defense
2001137-0000055 Ver. 1.0
TABLE OF
CONTENTS
I.
OVERVIEW
- A.
Purpose
- B.
Approach
- C.
Background
- D.
Summary of DoD Coordinated Modeling And Risk Characterization
- E.
Conclusion
-
- II.
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION
- A.
Background
- B.
Toxicological Profile of Sarin Nerve Agent
- C.
Toxicological Profile of Cyclosarin Nerve Agent
- D.
Recommended Exposure Guidelines For Sarin
-
- III.
DOSE-RESPONSE ASSESSMENT
- A.
Introduction
- B.
Dose-Response Relationship
- C.
Exposure Dose and Time of Exposure Relationship
- D.
Low-Level Toxicity Thresholds Used in this Report
-
- IV.
HAZARD AREA ASSESSMENT
- A.
Introduction
- B.
Background
- C.
1997 Modeling
- D.
Analysis Changes For The 2000 Modeling
-
- V.
HEALTH RISK CHARACTERIZATION
- A.
Introduction
- B.
Analyzing Exposures
- C.
Uncertainties of the Risk Analysis
- D.
Summary of Risk Characterization for US Forces at Khamisiyah
-
- APPENDIX
A Hazard Area Assessment (Modeling and Simulation)
- I.
BACKGROUND
- II.
RECONSTRUCTION AND REANALYSIS METHODOLOGY
- A.
Reconstructing Source Term
- B.
Reconstructing Meteorological Data
- C.
Reconstructing Dispersion Patterns Via Dispersion And Transport Modeling
- III.
APPLYING METEOROLOGICAL AND DISPERSIONS MODELS
- A.
Model Ensembles
- B.
Choosing Models
- C.
Description and Comparison of Mesoscale Meteorological Modeling Systems
- D.
Dispersion Modeling Systems
- IV.
ANALYTICAL ACTIVITIES
- A.
CIA Analysis and IDA Recommendations
- B.
CIA and DoD 1997 Analyses for Modeling
- C.
Refined Khamisiyah Analyses (For 2000 Modeling)
- TAB
A-I. DEGRADATION FROM ATMOSPHERIC RADICALS
- TAB
A-II. RECOMMENDATIONS OF VAPOR AND INHALATION TOXICITY ESTIMATES
TO BE USED IN KHAMISIYAH MODELING
-
- APPENDIX
B – Hazard Identification (Detailed Description)
- I.
BACKGROUND
- II.
SARIN'S TOXICOLOGICAL PROFILE
- A.
Fate and Transport
- B.
Acute Effects
- C.
Chronic Effects
- III.
CYCLOSARIN'S TOXICOLOGICAL PROFILE
- A.
Fate and Transport
- B.
Acute Effects
- C.
Chronic Effects
- IV.
RECOMMENDED SARIN AND CYCLOSARIN EXPOSURE GUIDELINES
- A.
Using Toxicity Data in Setting Exposure Guidelines and Assessing Risk
- B.
Existing Sarin Exposure Guidelines
- C.
Sarin Occupational and General Population Exposure Guidelines
- V.
UNCERTAINTIES OF THE RISK ANALYSIS
- A.
Toxicological Uncertainties
- B.
Exposure Determination
- C.
Risk Assessment Process
- VI.
SUMMARY OF RISK ASSESSMENT FOR US FORCES AT KHAMISIYAH
- TAB
B-I. CHEMICAL PROPERTIES OF SARIN AND CYCLOSARIN
- TAB
B-II. SUMMARY OF ACUTE LETHALITY DATA FOR SARIN AND CYCLOSARIN; TOXICITY
DATA FOR SARIN
-
- APPENDIX
C – Acronyms, Abbreviations, and Glossary
-
- APPENDIX
D – References
